NFLComputerPicksNFL Computer Picks: Best Bets for September 14, 2026
Published · Auto-generated from the model
Fresh run for Monday, September 14, 2026 — the computer flagged the games where its number is furthest from the market.
1. Buffalo Bills at New York Jets — NYJ +6.5 Lean
Where the book sits at 6.5 on NYJ, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is NYJ +6.5, an edge of about 2.0 points in our favor. For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 45.5 points against the posted 43.5. That points to the Over 43.5, with about 2.0 points of over edge.
Model confidence 62% · projected BUF 25 – NYJ 21 · full preview →
2. San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks — SEA +3.5 Lean
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of 3.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is SEA +3.5, an edge of about 1.5 points in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 44.5 points while the book has hung 46.5. That points to the Under 46.5, with about 2.0 points of under edge.
Model confidence 62% · projected SF 23 – SEA 21 · full preview →
3. Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans — HOU -2.5 Lean
The market opened at -2.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is HOU -2.5, an edge of about 2.0 points in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 45.5 combined points versus a market number of 44.5. That points to the Over 44.5, with about 1.0 points of over edge.
Model confidence 62% · projected MIA 21 – HOU 25 · full preview →
4. Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals — CIN +2.5 Lean
The market opened at 2.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is CIN +2.5, an edge of about 1.5 points in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 48.0 points while the book has hung 48.5. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.
Model confidence 59% · projected BAL 25 – CIN 24 · full preview →
5. Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys — PHI -1 Lean
Where the book sits at 1 on DAL, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is PHI -1, an edge of about 1.0 points in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 46.5 points while the book has hung 47.5. That points to the Under 47.5, with about 1.0 points of under edge.
Model confidence 56% · projected PHI 24 – DAL 22 · full preview →