Week 2 · Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM ET

Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans: prediction & pick

Miami Dolphins visit Houston Texans with the model leaning toward Houston Texans. Our projection has HOU favored by roughly 4.5 points, a win probability near 64%, and a projected final of MIA 21 – HOU 25.

Against the spread

The market opened at -2.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is HOU -2.5, an edge of about 2.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 45.5 combined points versus a market number of 44.5. That points to the Over 44.5, with about 1.0 points of over edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of MIA 21 – HOU 25, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 62% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.