Week 1 · Sun, Dec 6 · 6:00 PM ET

Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans: prediction & pick

Tennessee Titans host Washington Commanders in a matchup where the model sides with Washington Commanders. Our projection has WAS favored by roughly 3.5 points, a win probability near 61%, and a projected final of WAS 24 – TEN 21.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at 1.5 on TEN, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is WAS -1.5, an edge of about 2.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 44.5 points against the posted 46.5. That points to the Under 46.5, with about 2.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of WAS 24 – TEN 21, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 62% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.