Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13 · 8:25 PM ET

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles: prediction & pick

Washington Commanders visit Philadelphia Eagles with the model leaning toward Philadelphia Eagles. Our projection has PHI favored by roughly 7.0 points, a win probability near 71%, and a projected final of WAS 20 – PHI 27.

Against the spread

The market opened at -4.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is PHI -4.5, an edge of about 2.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 46.5 points against the posted 47.5. That points to the Under 47.5, with about 1.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of WAS 20 – PHI 27, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 65% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.