Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13 · 5:00 PM ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals: prediction & pick

The model has run the numbers on Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals and it likes Cincinnati Bengals. Our projection has CIN favored by roughly 3.5 points, a win probability near 61%, and a projected final of TB 22 – CIN 26.

Against the spread

The market opened at -3.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is CIN -3.5, an edge of about 0.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 47.5 combined points versus a market number of 52.5. That points to the Under 52.5, with about 5.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of TB 22 – CIN 26, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 80% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.