Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears: prediction & pick

The model has run the numbers on Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears and it likes Chicago Bears. Our projection has CHI favored by roughly 0.0 points, a win probability near 50%, and a projected final of TB 23 – CHI 23.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -3.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is TB +3.5, an edge of about 3.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 45.0 points while the book has hung 48.5. That points to the Under 48.5, with about 3.5 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of TB 23 – CHI 23, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 71% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.