Week 1 · Tue, Sep 29 · 12:15 AM ET

Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears: prediction & pick

Chicago Bears host Philadelphia Eagles in a matchup where the model sides with Philadelphia Eagles. Our projection has PHI favored by roughly 5.0 points, a win probability near 66%, and a projected final of PHI 25 – CHI 20.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is PHI +1.5, an edge of about 6.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 45.0 combined points versus a market number of 46.5. That points to the Under 46.5, with about 1.5 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of PHI 25 – CHI 20, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 88% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.