Week 1 · Sun, Sep 27 · 5:00 PM ET

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions: prediction & pick

Detroit Lions host New York Jets in a matchup where the model sides with Detroit Lions. Our projection has DET favored by roughly 7.5 points, a win probability near 73%, and a projected final of NYJ 20 – DET 27.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -9.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is NYJ +9.5, an edge of about 2.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 46.5 points against the posted 45.5. That points to the Over 45.5, with about 1.0 points of over edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of NYJ 20 – DET 27, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 62% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.