Week 1 · Sun, Nov 29 · 6:00 PM ET

New York Giants vs Indianapolis Colts: prediction & pick

The model has run the numbers on New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts and it likes Indianapolis Colts. Our projection has IND favored by roughly 5.0 points, a win probability near 66%, and a projected final of NYG 20 – IND 25.

Against the spread

The market opened at -2.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is IND -2.5, an edge of about 2.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 44.0 points against the posted 47.5. That points to the Under 47.5, with about 3.5 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of NYG 20 – IND 25, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 71% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.