New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: prediction & pick

The model has run the numbers on New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers and it likes Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Our projection has TB favored by roughly 5.0 points, a win probability near 66%, and a projected final of NO 20 – TB 25.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at -3.5 on TB, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is TB -3.5, an edge of about 1.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 45.0 combined points versus a market number of 45.5. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of NO 20 – TB 25, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 59% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.