New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens: prediction & pick

New Orleans Saints visit Baltimore Ravens with the model leaning toward Baltimore Ravens. Our projection has BAL favored by roughly 9.5 points, a win probability near 77%, and a projected final of NO 18 – BAL 28.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -7.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is BAL -7.5, an edge of about 2.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 45.5 points while the book has hung 46.5. That points to the Under 46.5, with about 1.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of NO 18 – BAL 28, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 62% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.