Week 1 · Thu, Sep 10 · 12:15 AM ET

New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks: prediction & pick

The model has run the numbers on New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks and it likes Seattle Seahawks. Our projection has SEA favored by roughly 4.5 points, a win probability near 64%, and a projected final of NE 20 – SEA 24.

Against the spread

The market opened at -3.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is SEA -3.5, an edge of about 1.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 43.5 points against the posted 44.5. That points to the Under 44.5, with about 1.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of NE 20 – SEA 24, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 56% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.