New England Patriots vs New York Jets: prediction & pick

New England Patriots visit New York Jets with the model leaning toward New York Jets. Our projection has NYJ favored by roughly 2.5 points, a win probability near 58%, and a projected final of NE 20 – NYJ 23.

Against the spread

The market opened at 6.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is NYJ +6.5, an edge of about 9.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 42.5 points while the book has hung 40.5. That points to the Over 40.5, with about 2.0 points of over edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of NE 20 – NYJ 23, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 88% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.