New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears: prediction & pick

The model has run the numbers on New England Patriots at Chicago Bears and it likes Chicago Bears. Our projection has CHI favored by roughly 3.0 points, a win probability near 60%, and a projected final of NE 20 – CHI 23.

Against the spread

The market opened at -1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is CHI -1.5, an edge of about 1.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 43.0 points while the book has hung 47.5. That points to the Under 47.5, with about 4.5 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of NE 20 – CHI 23, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 77% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.