New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills: prediction & pick

New England Patriots visit Buffalo Bills with the model leaning toward Buffalo Bills. Our projection has BUF favored by roughly 9.0 points, a win probability near 76%, and a projected final of NE 18 – BUF 27.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at -3 on BUF, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is BUF -3, an edge of about 6.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 45.5 combined points versus a market number of 49.5. That points to the Under 49.5, with about 4.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of NE 18 – BUF 27, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 86% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.