NFLComputerPicksMinnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots: prediction & pick
New England Patriots host Minnesota Vikings in a matchup where the model sides with Minnesota Vikings. Our projection has MIN favored by roughly 1.5 points, a win probability near 55%, and a projected final of MIN 22 – NE 21.
Against the spread
Where the book sits at -4.5 on NE, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is MIN +4.5, an edge of about 6.0 points in our favor.
Total (over/under)
Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 42.5 points while the book has hung 43.5. That points to the Under 43.5, with about 1.0 points of under edge.
The projection
Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of MIN 22 – NE 21, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.
Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 86% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.