Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers: prediction & pick

Green Bay Packers host Minnesota Vikings in a matchup where the model sides with Green Bay Packers. Our projection has GB favored by roughly 3.5 points, a win probability near 61%, and a projected final of MIN 21 – GB 24.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -4.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is MIN +4.5, an edge of about 1.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 45.0 points while the book has hung 45.5. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of MIN 21 – GB 24, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 56% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.