Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13 · 8:25 PM ET

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders: prediction & pick

Las Vegas Raiders host Miami Dolphins in a matchup where the model sides with Miami Dolphins. Our projection has MIA favored by roughly 1.0 points, a win probability near 53%, and a projected final of MIA 24 – LV 23.

Against the spread

The market opened at -3.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is MIA +3.5, an edge of about 4.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 46.0 combined points versus a market number of 40.5. That points to the Over 40.5, with about 5.5 points of over edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of MIA 24 – LV 23, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 83% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.