Las Vegas Raiders vs New Orleans Saints: prediction & pick

Las Vegas Raiders visit New Orleans Saints with the model leaning toward New Orleans Saints. Our projection has NO favored by roughly 3.0 points, a win probability near 60%, and a projected final of LV 20 – NO 23.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -3.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is LV +3.5, an edge of about 0.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 43.5 points while the book has hung 42.5. That points to the Over 42.5, with about 1.0 points of over edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of LV 20 – NO 23, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 56% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.