Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots: prediction & pick

When Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots meet, our simulation gives the edge to New England Patriots. Our projection has NE favored by roughly 3.0 points, a win probability near 60%, and a projected final of LV 20 – NE 23.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at -8.5 on NE, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is LV +8.5, an edge of about 5.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 43.0 points against the posted 44.5. That points to the Under 44.5, with about 1.5 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of LV 20 – NE 23, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 83% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.