Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins: prediction & pick

Miami Dolphins host Los Angeles Chargers in a matchup where the model sides with Miami Dolphins. Our projection has MIA favored by roughly 0.5 points, a win probability near 52%, and a projected final of LAC 23 – MIA 23.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at 7 on MIA, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is MIA +7, an edge of about 7.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 46.0 points against the posted 45.5. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of LAC 23 – MIA 23, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 88% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.