Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos: prediction & pick

When Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos meet, our simulation gives the edge to Denver Broncos. Our projection has DEN favored by roughly 1.0 points, a win probability near 53%, and a projected final of LAC 21 – DEN 22.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at -1.5 on DEN, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is LAC +1.5, an edge of about 0.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 43.5 points while the book has hung 41.5. That points to the Over 41.5, with about 2.0 points of over edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of LAC 21 – DEN 22, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 62% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.