Week 1 · Sun, Sep 27 · 5:00 PM ET

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins: prediction & pick

Miami Dolphins host Kansas City Chiefs in a matchup where the model sides with Kansas City Chiefs. Our projection has KC favored by roughly 3.5 points, a win probability near 61%, and a projected final of KC 26 – MIA 22.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at 7.5 on MIA, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is MIA +7.5, an edge of about 4.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 47.5 points against the posted 44.5. That points to the Over 44.5, with about 3.0 points of over edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of KC 26 – MIA 22, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 74% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.