Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders: prediction & pick

Kansas City Chiefs visit Las Vegas Raiders with the model leaning toward Kansas City Chiefs. Our projection has KC favored by roughly 6.5 points, a win probability near 70%, and a projected final of KC 26 – LV 19.

Against the spread

The market opened at 5.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is KC -5.5, an edge of about 1.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 45.0 combined points versus a market number of 43.5. That points to the Over 43.5, with about 1.5 points of over edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of KC 26 – LV 19, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 59% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.