Week 1 · Mon, Dec 28 · 1:20 AM ET

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys: prediction & pick

Dallas Cowboys host Jacksonville Jaguars in a matchup where the model sides with Dallas Cowboys. Our projection has DAL favored by roughly 5.0 points, a win probability near 66%, and a projected final of JAX 20 – DAL 25.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at -3 on DAL, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is DAL -3, an edge of about 2.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 45.5 points against the posted 51.5. That points to the Under 51.5, with about 6.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of JAX 20 – DAL 25, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 86% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.