Week 1 · Fri, Nov 6 · 1:15 AM ET

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens: prediction & pick

Baltimore Ravens host Jacksonville Jaguars in a matchup where the model sides with Baltimore Ravens. Our projection has BAL favored by roughly 8.5 points, a win probability near 75%, and a projected final of JAX 19 – BAL 27.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at -4.5 on BAL, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is BAL -4.5, an edge of about 4.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 46.0 points while the book has hung 49.5. That points to the Under 49.5, with about 3.5 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of JAX 19 – BAL 27, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 74% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.