Week 1 · Sun, Dec 20 · 6:00 PM ET

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans: prediction & pick

Tennessee Titans host Indianapolis Colts in a matchup where the model sides with Indianapolis Colts. Our projection has IND favored by roughly 1.5 points, a win probability near 55%, and a projected final of IND 23 – TEN 21.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at 1.5 on TEN, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is TEN +1.5, an edge of about 0.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 43.5 combined points versus a market number of 47.5. That points to the Under 47.5, with about 4.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of IND 23 – TEN 21, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 74% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.