Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: prediction & pick

Tampa Bay Buccaneers host Green Bay Packers in a matchup where the model sides with Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Our projection has TB favored by roughly 0.0 points, a win probability near 50%, and a projected final of GB 24 – TB 24.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at 1.5 on TB, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is TB +1.5, an edge of about 1.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 47.0 points against the posted 47.5. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of GB 24 – TB 24, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 59% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.