Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots: prediction & pick

When Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots meet, our simulation gives the edge to Green Bay Packers. Our projection has GB favored by roughly 3.0 points, a win probability near 60%, and a projected final of GB 24 – NE 21.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is GB +1.5, an edge of about 4.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 45.0 points while the book has hung 46.5. That points to the Under 46.5, with about 1.5 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of GB 24 – NE 21, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 77% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.