Week 1 · Sun, Nov 8 · 6:00 PM ET

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins: prediction & pick

Detroit Lions visit Miami Dolphins with the model leaning toward Detroit Lions. Our projection has DET favored by roughly 2.0 points, a win probability near 56%, and a projected final of DET 26 – MIA 24.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of 6.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is MIA +6.5, an edge of about 4.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 49.5 combined points versus a market number of 47.5. That points to the Over 47.5, with about 2.0 points of over edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of DET 26 – MIA 24, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 77% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.