Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots: prediction & pick

The model has run the numbers on Denver Broncos at New England Patriots and it likes Denver Broncos. Our projection has DEN favored by roughly 0.5 points, a win probability near 52%, and a projected final of DEN 22 – NE 21.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at -2.5 on NE, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is DEN +2.5, an edge of about 3.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 43.0 points against the posted 42.5. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of DEN 22 – NE 21, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 68% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.