Week 1 · Sun, Nov 8 · 6:00 PM ET

Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts: prediction & pick

Dallas Cowboys visit Indianapolis Colts with the model leaning toward Dallas Cowboys. Our projection has DAL favored by roughly 1.0 points, a win probability near 53%, and a projected final of DAL 23 – IND 22.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of 1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is IND +1.5, an edge of about 0.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 45.5 combined points versus a market number of 52.5. That points to the Under 52.5, with about 7.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of DAL 23 – IND 22, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 88% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.