Week 1 · Sun, Oct 4 · 5:00 PM ET

Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans: prediction & pick

When Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans meet, our simulation gives the edge to Houston Texans. Our projection has HOU favored by roughly 2.5 points, a win probability near 58%, and a projected final of DAL 21 – HOU 24.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -2.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is HOU -2.5, an edge of about 0.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 44.5 combined points versus a market number of 47.5. That points to the Under 47.5, with about 3.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of DAL 21 – HOU 24, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 68% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.