Week 1 · Sun, Dec 13 · 6:00 PM ET

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins: prediction & pick

The model has run the numbers on Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins and it likes Miami Dolphins. Our projection has MIA favored by roughly 3.0 points, a win probability near 60%, and a projected final of CHI 22 – MIA 25.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of 5.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is MIA +5.5, an edge of about 8.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 46.0 points against the posted 46.5. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of CHI 22 – MIA 25, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 88% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.