Week 1 · Thu, Nov 26 · 6:00 PM ET

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions: prediction & pick

Detroit Lions host Chicago Bears in a matchup where the model sides with Detroit Lions. Our projection has DET favored by roughly 7.0 points, a win probability near 71%, and a projected final of CHI 20 – DET 27.

Against the spread

The market opened at -2.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is DET -2.5, an edge of about 4.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 47.0 points against the posted 52.5. That points to the Under 52.5, with about 5.5 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of CHI 20 – DET 27, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 83% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.