Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers: prediction & pick

When Buffalo Bills and Green Bay Packers meet, our simulation gives the edge to Green Bay Packers. Our projection has GB favored by roughly 0.0 points, a win probability near 50%, and a projected final of BUF 24 – GB 24.

Against the spread

The market opened at -1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is BUF +1.5, an edge of about 1.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 48.0 points against the posted 49.5. That points to the Under 49.5, with about 1.5 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of BUF 24 – GB 24, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 59% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.